The United States Is Determined to Return to the Dangerous Iran Deal at Any Cost: The Implications for Israel

Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser

Advanced IR-6 centrifuges in the underground and hardened Natanz uranium-enrichment facility in central Iran. 

• If Iran decides to enrich its current stock of uranium to a military grade, within four months it could have enough for four nuclear devices.
   
• In the current round of nuclear negotiations, the U.S. could have pressured Iran to renounce the dangerous advances it has made to produce nuclear weapons and demanded a much better agreement through a combination of sanctions and a credible threat to use force. However, recent reports indicated that the U.S. surrendered to Iranian demands on sanctions.
   
• The Americans are focused on conflicts with Russia and China. The consolidation of Iran's position is not seen as a threat significant enough for the administration to mobilize to thwart it.
   
• Even if American leaders declare their commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and they are convinced that a return to the agreement will contribute to this, in practice, the pact paves a safe path for Iran to becoming a nuclear power.
   
• If the agreement does go into effect, Israel will have to advance a covert campaign to thwart Iran's nuclear program. If, in the immediate term, Iran will slightly back away from the nuclear threshold, Israel must use this additional time to develop the ability to thwart Iran's nuclear program.
   
• At the same time, Israel must continue to tighten its ties with the pragmatic Arab states, which are deeply troubled by Iran's consolidation of forces and the U.S.'s apparent weakness.

 

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Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He was formerly Director General of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence.